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resilients:scenario_symphony [2013-02-06 03:11] – created nik | resilients:scenario_symphony [2013-02-12 01:41] – alkan | ||
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- | ==== Scenario Symphony ==== | ||
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== Composing a Scenario Symphony == | == Composing a Scenario Symphony == | ||
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//Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[FoAM prehearsal article]] as an introduction.// | //Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[FoAM prehearsal article]] as an introduction.// | ||
- | === Testing resilience of possible futures === | + | ==== Testing resilience of possible futures |
FoAM Nordica is developing a set of tools and experiments to link future scenario building with the concept of resilience. By resilience in this context we mean the capacity of a system (e.g. social, urban, ecological) to tolerate shocks and disturbances without falling apart or collapsing into a qualitatively different state. The ability to incorporate future instabilities is an important aspect of resilient systems and is the cornerstone of scenario building. | FoAM Nordica is developing a set of tools and experiments to link future scenario building with the concept of resilience. By resilience in this context we mean the capacity of a system (e.g. social, urban, ecological) to tolerate shocks and disturbances without falling apart or collapsing into a qualitatively different state. The ability to incorporate future instabilities is an important aspect of resilient systems and is the cornerstone of scenario building. | ||
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>> FIGURE 1 – Example of a ' | >> FIGURE 1 – Example of a ' | ||
- | === Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit === | + | ==== Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit ==== |
* **STEP 1: Identify your challenge.** Identify the focal problem or “burning issue” you wish to examine -- something everyone cares about and has some involvement in. Try formulating your challenge as a question. For example: //Are we too many to feed? What should we focus our limited energy on? How could food improve contact and engagement in a multicultural neighbourhood?// | * **STEP 1: Identify your challenge.** Identify the focal problem or “burning issue” you wish to examine -- something everyone cares about and has some involvement in. Try formulating your challenge as a question. For example: //Are we too many to feed? What should we focus our limited energy on? How could food improve contact and engagement in a multicultural neighbourhood?// | ||
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- | === An open-ended symphony === | + | ==== An open-ended symphony |
The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, | The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, | ||
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If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. | If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. | ||
- | === References === | + | ==== References |
* Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. 2002. //Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature.// Washington: Island Press | * Lance Gunderson and C. S. Holling. 2002. //Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Systems of Humans and Nature.// Washington: Island Press |