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| * Finally, from the normative vantage point ask yourself what the desirable outcome in each scenario is. Think about changes in mindsets and behaviours that would need to happen in order to reach this outcome. The normative vantage point can be thought of as the subjective perspective, | * Finally, from the normative vantage point ask yourself what the desirable outcome in each scenario is. Think about changes in mindsets and behaviours that would need to happen in order to reach this outcome. The normative vantage point can be thought of as the subjective perspective, | ||
| - | * **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[link to the panarchy page|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation. | + | * **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation. |
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| * **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages. | * **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages. | ||
| - | * **STEP 13: Prototype | + | * **STEP 13: Prototype scenarios** In this step your aim is to experience the full complexity of the scenarios you have devised. One way to do this is to enact each scenario as a performance. This can help to raise awareness of its challenges, and how all those involved might react in the scenario. You could use tools such as inflatables and actors, or whatever you wish in order to convey and embody your scenario. This step is a longer process that requires project planning and production. |
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| It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating | It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating | ||
| - | Although our scenario symphony may seem to be a time-consuming process, it can be mixed and matched, providing some playful and imaginative ingredients to probe possible futures. We have attempted to take the rather obscure scientific model of panarchy and combine it with the more conventional instruments used by future-building think-tanks. It is an invitation to use, reuse and recycle. The steps we have utilised follow a pattern derived from a [[reference? | + | Although our scenario symphony may seem to be a time-consuming process, it can be mixed and matched, providing some playful and imaginative ingredients to probe possible futures. We have attempted to take the rather obscure scientific model of panarchy and combine it with the more conventional instruments used by future-building think-tanks. It is an invitation to use, reuse and recycle. The steps we have utilised follow a pattern derived from a scenario cookbook used by the Stockholm Resilience Centre; however the order and number of steps can be adapted to different needs. It is our wish that each of us begin to compose unique symphonies for scenario building that can work for a diverse range of participants, |
| If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. | If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. | ||
nik