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- | ==== Scenario Symphony ==== | + | ==== Composing a Scenario Symphony ==== |
- | == Composing a Scenario | + | Notes from FoAM' |
- | Notes from FoAM's Scenario Building experiments by Anna Maria Orru and David Relan | + | //Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[http:// |
- | + | ||
- | //Note to the reader: this article assumes a basic knowledge of scenario building and strategic foresight. If you are new to this field, we suggest that you first read [[FoAM prehearsal article]] as an introduction.// | + | |
=== Testing resilience of possible futures === | === Testing resilience of possible futures === | ||
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We wanted to create a scenario-building kit -- a symphony of visual tools and storytelling techniques that could be used by individuals, | We wanted to create a scenario-building kit -- a symphony of visual tools and storytelling techniques that could be used by individuals, | ||
- | Scavenging techniques from our previous projects such as [[http:// | + | Scavenging techniques from our previous projects such as [[http:// |
To test the scenario building kit, we decided to try it out in practice. FoAM Brussels is located in [[http:// | To test the scenario building kit, we decided to try it out in practice. FoAM Brussels is located in [[http:// | ||
- | >> FIGURE 1 – Example of a ' | + | |
+ | <html><a href=" | ||
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 1 – Example of a ' | ||
=== Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit === | === Try this at home: the DIY / DIWO scenario building kit === | ||
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* **STEP 2: Set the boundaries: | * **STEP 2: Set the boundaries: | ||
- | >> FIGURE 2 – Foodprints Ruler | + | <html><a href=" |
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 2 – Foodprints Ruler (image credit) | ||
* **STEP 3: Map the territory.** Create a list of physical, social, economic and historical characteristics of the place you're interested in, for example your family home, company HQ, neighbourhood, | * **STEP 3: Map the territory.** Create a list of physical, social, economic and historical characteristics of the place you're interested in, for example your family home, company HQ, neighbourhood, | ||
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* **STEP 7: Construct the scenario matrix.** On a large sheet of paper draw a vertical line crossing over a horizontal line -- an enlarged “+” sign, labelling the end of each line with one of the polar opposites of your two CUs. In this matrix, each of the four quadrants represents a skeleton of one scenario (see figure 3). //For example: [scenario 1] food abundance in a community-oriented lifestyle; [scenario 2] food scarcity in community oriented lifestyle; [scenario 3] food abundance in individualistic lifestyle; [scenario 4] food scarcity in an individualistic life-style.// | * **STEP 7: Construct the scenario matrix.** On a large sheet of paper draw a vertical line crossing over a horizontal line -- an enlarged “+” sign, labelling the end of each line with one of the polar opposites of your two CUs. In this matrix, each of the four quadrants represents a skeleton of one scenario (see figure 3). //For example: [scenario 1] food abundance in a community-oriented lifestyle; [scenario 2] food scarcity in community oriented lifestyle; [scenario 3] food abundance in individualistic lifestyle; [scenario 4] food scarcity in an individualistic life-style.// | ||
- | >> | + | |
+ | <html><a href=" | ||
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 3: Scenario matrix | ||
* **STEP 8: Create scenario narratives.** Draft a storyline/ | * **STEP 8: Create scenario narratives.** Draft a storyline/ | ||
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* Finally, from the normative vantage point ask yourself what the desirable outcome in each scenario is. Think about changes in mindsets and behaviours that would need to happen in order to reach this outcome. The normative vantage point can be thought of as the subjective perspective, | * Finally, from the normative vantage point ask yourself what the desirable outcome in each scenario is. Think about changes in mindsets and behaviours that would need to happen in order to reach this outcome. The normative vantage point can be thought of as the subjective perspective, | ||
- | * **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[link to the panarchy page|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation. | + | * **STEP 10: Locate your scenarios in the [[from_pan_to_panarchy|panarchy cycle]].** Map the “past, present, near future and distant future” of each of your scenarios to the four phases of the panarchy cycle. To do this ask yourself which phase your scenario is positioned in. For example, the “birth” phase could be the past, the “growth and maturation” phase the present, “death” the near future, and “renewal” the distant future (see figure 5); or perhaps your scenario is situated in the creative chaos of the renewal stage -- on the verge of a complete transformation. |
- | >> | + | |
+ | <html><a href=" | ||
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 5 – Examples | ||
* **STEP 11: Create an active and a passive future.** Design a passive future for your scenario where “business as usual” continues through all activities, regardless of what happens within and without the system in the long term. Next, design an active future where the scenario evolves towards an adaptive state of balance between its internal and external conditions -- thereby becoming more resilient. | * **STEP 11: Create an active and a passive future.** Design a passive future for your scenario where “business as usual” continues through all activities, regardless of what happens within and without the system in the long term. Next, design an active future where the scenario evolves towards an adaptive state of balance between its internal and external conditions -- thereby becoming more resilient. | ||
- | >> | + | <html><a href=" |
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 6 – Active and passive future | ||
* **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages. | * **STEP 12: Visualise scenarios.** To illustrate your narratives, begin creating visuals for each. You could create one moodboard per scenario. Sometimes this is sufficient. In other situations you might want to create concept art illustrations or photomontages. | ||
- | * **STEP 13: Prototype | + | * **STEP 13: Prototype scenarios** In this step your aim is to experience the full complexity of the scenarios you have devised. One way to do this is to enact each scenario as a performance. This can help to raise awareness of its challenges, and how all those involved might react in the scenario. You could use tools such as inflatables and actors, or whatever you wish in order to convey and embody your scenario. This step is a longer process that requires project planning and production. |
>> | >> | ||
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The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, | The symphony of tools for future scenario building outlined above provides a set of self-contained elements that can be used in different configurations, | ||
- | >> FIGURE 7 – Viewing a scenario from different perspectives | + | <html><a href=" |
+ | |||
+ | FIGURE 7 – Viewing a scenario from different perspectives | ||
It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating | It is our belief that the most important reason for thinking about the future is to learn about and adapt our behaviours in the present. Panarchy and the temporal model can help us reflect on the effect of our mindsets on system-wide changes. Our past past was at one time our future and this past has now determined our present. The panarchy model reflects the unpredictability of the rate of change in systems, but outlines perspectives for understanding this change. In planning for the future with an awareness of our agency and ability to shape change, future scenario building provides us with much more than an arsenal for anticipating | ||
- | Although our scenario symphony may seem to be a time-consuming process, it can be mixed and matched, providing some playful and imaginative ingredients to probe possible futures. We have attempted to take the rather obscure scientific model of panarchy and combine it with the more conventional instruments used by future-building think-tanks. It is an invitation to use, reuse and recycle. The steps we have utilised follow a pattern derived from a [[reference? | + | Although our scenario symphony may seem to be a time-consuming process, it can be mixed and matched, providing some playful and imaginative ingredients to probe possible futures. We have attempted to take the rather obscure scientific model of panarchy and combine it with the more conventional instruments used by future-building think-tanks. It is an invitation to use, reuse and recycle. The steps we have utilised follow a pattern derived from a scenario cookbook used by the Stockholm Resilience Centre; however the order and number of steps can be adapted to different needs. It is our wish that each of us begin to compose unique symphonies for scenario building that can work for a diverse range of participants, |
If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. | If you do embark on the journey, please share your results and feel free to add your composition to our scenario building toolkit. |