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| the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 11:43] – [References] maja | the_art_of_futuring [2019-03-13 14:11] – nik |
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| === Scenario building === | === Scenario building === |
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| There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. | There are many different techniques for scenario building, from [[:futurist_fieldguide/four_generic_futures|The Four Generic Futures]] that we introduced in the card games, to CLA, [[https://thevoroscope.com/2017/02/24/the-futures-cone-use-and-history/|The Futures Cone]] and many others. At the Art of Futuring workshop we used the old 2x2 double uncertainty, adapted from the technique described by Peter Schwartz in The Art of the Long View. This method creates evocative, albeit not too surprising scenarios, which tend to be useful caricatures of the present than radically imaginative futures. |
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| The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: | The challenge of the Schwartz/GBN method lies in its focus on scenario axes derived from critical uncertainties: |
| * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. | * the 2×2 matrix highlights 'opposites' and extreme scenarios, potentially losing the subtleties and diversity of the worlds. |
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| Read more the GBN approach [[https://libarynth.org/futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml | Read more the GBN approach [[:futurist_fieldguide/gbn_approach|here]]. You can find a slightly different description on the website of Infinite Futures (Wendy Schultz), alongside descriptions of other useful scenario building and futuring tools and techniques: http://www.infinitefutures.com/tools/sbschwartz.shtml |
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| Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. | Below is a diagram of the GBN approach as a whole method. At the Art of Futuring we used this approach to rank critical uncertainties, create scenario axes and scenario skeletons. |
nik